Commentary & Analysis
Featured articles
What a slowing China means for investors
There has been much talk recently about whether the Chinese economy faces a hard landing. In this paper, we explain why we continue to believe that a soft landing is the most likely scenario. China is slowing, but will it be a hard or soft landing? Evidence continues to mount …
The fixed income sweet spot
Although government bond yields remain at very low levels, the broader fixed income universe has much to offer at present. Indeed, record-low interest rates and central bank liquidity injections are creating very positive conditions for bond investing. In this paper, Nick Gartside looks at the factors driving bond markets, examines …
UK Budget 2012: The terms of the debate
This paper describes some of the key numbers and arguments regarding the coming UK government budget on 21 March. All index performance is sourced from FactSet. Economic data is sourced from Bloomberg unless otherwise indicated. How much does the UK government owe? The total accumulated debt issued by the UK …
Latest articles
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Going with the flow: Fund flows and asset allocation
Retail investors have traditionally been characterised as chasing the markets and only moving into an asset once most of the returns have already been made. Our analysis of broad asset allocation to equities and fixed income shows that this is not the case. There has been a dramatic change, however, …
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The underemployment of older workers in Europe
The Polish government’s decision earlier this month to raise the male retirement age to 67 from 2020 (currently it is 65) is part of an ongoing trend throughout Europe, as governments seek to cut their budget deficits through adjustments to pensions and welfare payments. Aggravating the pension problem is the …
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Grexit: Should I stay or should I go?
The situation in Greece is becoming more preoccupying by the day. No party leader has been able to form a government and new elections may need to be held next month, while the rising popularity of the anti-bailout Syriza party means they would likely receive the greatest number of votes. …
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Investment Director’s bulletin – May 2012
The key drivers of the pull back in world equity markets were mixed economic data and negative political news, which heightened concerns that the fundamental risks to equities remain material.
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Weekly market recap – 14 May 2012
There has been much talk of a “growth compact” for the eurozone, but this means different things to different people. At one end of the spectrum is the German government/ ECB view, which has that sustainable growth can only result from government budget discipline and supply side reforms (eg reforming …
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Weekly strategy report – 14 May 2012
Is it time to go overweight Europe? Every investor’s favourite regional equity bet seems to be underweight Europe against overweight the US. We agree, and are positioned in line with consensus.
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A eurozone growth compact: possibly fruitless, but a welcome debate
Eurozone leaders and central bankers agree that they all want to see regional economic growth. To this end there is increasing willingness to agree to M Hollande’s call for a regional ‘growth compact’. Although agreement ends on the question of how to achieve growth, the debate will be welcome after …
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Weekly stock market report (28 April – 4 May 2012)
US: Economic worries knock sentiment US stocks fell last week as concerns over the strength of the economic recovery hit sentiment. The Dow Jones was 1.4% lower, while the S&P 500 had its worst week of 2012 so far, falling 2.4%. The NASDAQ underperformed, losing 3.7%, as technology stocks succumbed …
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A market perspective : Seatbelts fastened
Muted reaction so far to elections in Europe, but elevated potential for turmoil in the region at least until legislative elections in France next month. Though earnings surprises were as good as those in the US (around 6%), this just meant “less bad” for Europe as opposed to “even better” in the US.
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Weekly strategy report – 7 May 2012
European voters delivered their verdicts on existing governments in four European countries last week: the UK (local elections), Germany (state election), France and Greece. The most important was the second round of the French presidential elections on Sunday, with François Hollande, the socialist candidate expected to have won.
